Our monthly look at asking prices, sales volumes and regional movements across the UK property market.
House price headlines rarely agree with each other. One index reports a monthly fall, another an annual rise, and a third says the market is flat — all in the same week. They are not contradicting each other so much as measuring different things at different points in the transaction. Understanding which is which turns the noise into something usable.
The main indices, and what each one actually measures
UK House Price Index (ONS and HM Land Registry)
The most complete measure, because it is built from actual completed sales registered at the Land Registry — cash purchases included. Its weakness is timing: registration happens weeks after completion, so the data typically lags the market by two to three months. Treat it as the authoritative record of what happened, not as a signal of what is happening now.
Nationwide and Halifax indices
Both are built from their own mortgage approvals, so they capture the market earlier — at the point a loan is agreed rather than when the sale completes. Because each reflects one lender’s book and excludes cash buyers, the monthly figures are volatile and the two often diverge. The three-month trend is far more meaningful than any single month.
Asking-price indices
Published by the property portals, these measure what sellers are asking, not what buyers are paying. They are the earliest signal available and useful for reading seller confidence, but the gap between asking and achieved prices widens in a slow market and narrows in a hot one.
RICS Residential Market Survey
Not a price index at all, but a monthly survey of surveyors and agents reporting on buyer enquiries, new instructions and price expectations. It is a sentiment indicator, and it tends to turn before the price data does.
Look at volumes, not just prices
Transaction counts and mortgage approvals often tell you more than the price line. Prices are sticky — sellers withdraw rather than accept less — so in a weakening market activity falls first and prices follow later. HMRC publishes monthly transaction estimates and the Bank of England publishes mortgage approvals; both are worth watching alongside any price index.
National averages hide almost everything
The UK does not have one housing market. Regional divergence is routinely wider than the national change, and within a region the variation between property types is wider still. Flats and houses frequently move in opposite directions, and factors such as EPC ratings, cladding, ground rents and lease length can affect one segment while leaving another untouched.
For your own decision, the relevant comparison is sold prices for similar properties on similar streets over the past six months. A national average is context, not evidence.
Watch for seasonality
Activity has a reliable annual rhythm — a spring lift, a summer lull, an autumn pickup and a December trough. Most indices publish seasonally adjusted figures alongside raw ones. Compare like with like, and be sceptical of any month-on-month figure reported without saying which it is.
What actually moves the market
- Mortgage rates. The single biggest driver of affordability, and therefore of what buyers can bid.
- Real earnings. Prices are ultimately constrained by what people can borrow against their income.
- Supply of listings. More stock gives buyers negotiating power; scarcity does the reverse.
- Tax and policy changes. Stamp duty thresholds, rules for landlords and support schemes for first-time buyers all shift demand between segments.
You can look up what individual properties actually sold for using our UK house prices and sold prices tool, or get an estimate for your own home with an instant online valuation.
This article explains how to read market data. It is general information, not financial or valuation advice.
